The results from EPRI’s study of U.S. potential for energy efficiency are shown in Table 1-5. As noted earlier, the baseline forecast seeks to “add back” the effects of existing efficiency programs, providing an estimate of the electricity consumption without the impacts of these programs. The Economic Potential assumes that equipment is replaced with the most efficient option that passes the cost test at the end of the existing stock’s useful life. Achievable Potential scales the Economic Potential to reflect barriers to adoption, namely cost-effectiveness to the customer.
Table 1-5. Forecast of Annual Electricity Consumption in the U.S.
These results suggest that energy efficiency programs can realistically reduce the annual growth rate of U.S. electricity consumption from 2017 to 2040 projected by the AEO2018 Reference case by 28% from 0.62% to 0.45% CAGR.
Table 1-6 lists the energy savings forecast by EPRI’s study in terms of annual savings in 2030 and 2040, as well as the percent savings relative to the AEO2018 Reference case and EPRI’s adjusted baseline case.
Table 1-6. Forecast of Potential Electricity Savings in the U.S.
Compared to EIA’s AEO2018 Reference Case, these results indicate that up to 10.8% of the annual electricity consumption in the U.S. in 2040 could be reduced by deployment of cost-effective technologies. Figure 1-5 shows the four forecasts of annual electricity consumption through 2040.
Figure 1-5. Forecast of Energy Efficiency Potential for the U.S.