U.S. Energy Efficiency Potential Through 2040

List of Acronyms, Abbreviations, Tables, and Figures

Acronyms and Abbreviations

A/C — Air conditioning

AEO — EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook

CAGR — Compound annual growth rate

CFL — Compact fluorescent lamp

EIA — U.S. Energy Information Administration

EMS — Energy management system

EUI — Energy use intensity (typically kWh/sqft)

GDP — Gross domestic product

HVAC — Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning

LED — Light-emitting diode

PC — Personal computer

TRC — Total resource cost

TWh — Terawatt-hour, or one billion (109) kWh

UEC — Unit energy consumption

List of Figures

Figure 1-1 General Energy Efficiency Analysis Framework

Figure 1-2 2017 U.S. Electricity Consumption by Sector and End Use

Figure 1-3 Reference Case - AEO2018 Forecast of Electricity Consumption from 2017 to 2040

Figure 1-4 Estimated Impact of Energy Efficiency Drivers Embedded in the AEO2018 Reference Case

Figure 1-5 Forecast of Energy Efficiency Potential for the U.S.

Figure 1-6 Top Three End Uses with Achievable Energy Savings in 2040

Figure 1-7 Top 10 Measures with Highest Achievable Potential in 2040

Figure 1-8 Geographic Divisions Analyzed: Ten Census Divisions plus Four States

Figure 1-9 Breakdown of 2040 Achievable Potential by Division

Figure 1-10 2040 Percent Achievable Potential by Sector for Each Division

Figure 1-11 2040 Remaining Achievable Potential by Sector for Each Division

Figure 1-12 Overall Impact of Sensitivity Analysis with Higher Avoided Costs

Figure 1-13 Residential Achievable Potential with Increased Avoided Energy Costs

Figure 1-14 Commercial Achievable Potential with Increased Avoided Energy Costs

Figure 1-15 Industrial Achievable Potential with Increased Avoided Energy Costs

Figure 1-16 Total Achievable Potential by State in 2040, in GWh

Figure 1-17 Total Energy Efficiency Achievable Potential in 2040, as a Percentage of Adjusted Baseline Sales

Figure 1-18 Remaining 2040 Energy Efficiency Achievable Potential Based on Extrapolation of Average Historical State Savings

List of Tables

Table 1-1 Categories of Residential Efficiency Measures Considered

Table 1-2 Categories of Commercial Efficiency Measures Considered

Table 1-3 Structural Changes to the Model

Table 1-4 Updated Model Input and Baseline Data

Table 1-5 Forecast of Annual Electricity Consumption in the U.S.

Table 1-6 Forecast of Potential Electricity Savings in the U.S.

Table 1-7 Comparison of Latest Results and Previous Forecast of Achievable Potential

Table 1-8 Baseline Energy Consumption and 2040 Achievable Potential by Region (GWh)

Table 1-9 2040 Achievable Potential by Sector for Each Division

Table 1-10 Top Three End Uses for 2040 Achievable Potential, Northeast Census Region

Table 1-11 Top Three End Uses for 2040 Achievable Potential, South Census Region

Table 1-12 Top Three End Uses for 2040 Achievable Potential, Midwest Census Region

Table 1-13 Top Three End Uses for 2040 Achievable Potential, West Census Region

Table 1-14 Impact of Increased Avoided Energy Costs on Cumulative Achievable Potentials with Cumulative Baseline Consumption

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